It's every skier's dream: to arrive at a resort just after a good storm, take one of the first lift rides up and ply delightfully fresh, powdery tracks. The reality, though, is that most of us can't drop everything to chase storms. We have to plan a ski trip in advance. That means the odds of finding good snow, let alone a powder day (often defined as six or more inches of new snow), requires some strategizing.
The simplest trick (other than forking over a lot of money for a snowcat or heli-skiing trip, and even that's no guarantee) is to pick a resort known for receiving prodigious amounts of snow.
But start talking to meteorologists and others who track snowfall, and it turns out it's not so simple. The vagaries of mountain weather mean that snow conditions in a couple of months are nearly impossible to predict accurately.
"I really hate planning trips too far in the future, because you never know what's going to happen," said Joel Gratz, a Boulder, Colo.-based meteorologist and co-founder of the opensnow.com website, which specializes in ski-targeted forecasting. "Hope isn't in my vocabulary."
Short-term forecasting isn't much easier. The craggy topography of mountainous terrain is partly to blame, as is the difficulty of measuring atmospheric moisture at mountain-top elevations and in the upper atmosphere. "A lot of the tricks of mountain forecasting come down to terrain and wind direction," Mr. Gratz added. "To learn these local effects, you need to live there and have observed the weather for a few years."
No need to pack up your skis and call it a day. You can't predict the weather, but you can use nature's clues to make an educated guess about when and where to find powder in North America.
GET TO KNOW YOUR BEST BETS There is an elite club of American resorts that average 500 or more inches of snow annually. They include Mount Baker in Washington (655); Alyeska in Alaska (650); Kirkwood (600) and Sugar Bowl (500) in California; Alta (560), Snowbird, Brighton and Solitude (500 each) in Utah; and Grand Targhee in Wyoming (500).
But you shouldn't count out the East. "One of the biggest misconceptions is that it doesn't snow very much in the Northeast," said Brian Clark, a New Hampshire-based meteorologist. "You just have to know where to find it."
The northern Green Mountains get ample snow, noted Mr. Clark, especially Jay Peak, Bolton Valley and Stowe. Of Jay Peak's 300 annual inches of snowfall, a number that rivals those of many Western ski resorts, Mr. Clark said: "They really get it. They don't inflate it."
Several resorts have their own microclimates, meaning they may get snow when other areas don't, added Mr. Clark, citing Bretton Woods and Wildcat in New Hampshire; Sugarloaf and Saddleback in western Maine; and Whiteface Mountain in Lake Placid, New York.
Northeastern resorts also have one advantage over most Western ski areas: extensive snow-making. As long as the weather stays consistently cool, with no extreme warm spells or rain, skiers can count on a good base, if not necessarily powder days.
MAKE YOUR OWN LONG-TERM FORECAST Not everyone manages to make it to the slopes most likely to have powder, and even those who do can land on an off week (or month). So how do you know what to expect if you're looking to book trips far in the future, around a school vacation, say?
The Pacific Ocean's weather patterns can sometimes tell you what sort of year to expect, but this year, it is currently experiencing a neutral pattern, said Mark McLaughlin, a Lake Tahoe-based weather historian. The word "neutral" — which means that it is not an El Nino or La Nina year — sounds innocuous, but it actually means that the weather is especially difficult to predict for skiers.
So early-season weather may be your best guide, this year especially. Wait until December or January to choose a location, said Tony Crocker, a snow tracker who runs the bestsnow.net website. Then you'll know which areas have gotten off to a good start. Using his logic, look to ski resorts along a swath of the Rockies from British Columbia to northern New Mexico, which have received above-average snowfall. In a season progress report on bestsnow.net, Mr. Crocker noted that 20 resorts were ahead of their average seasonal snowfall totals by Dec. 7, including Fernie (154 percent) in British Columbia, Grand Targhee (136 percent), Aspen/Snowmass (163 percent), Crested Butte (157 percent), Telluride (151 percent) and Taos (136 percent). Since 1996 Mr. Crocker has systematically and meticulously analyzed snowfall at ski areas across the United States and Canada, based on monthly data he receives from the resorts' snow safety departments.
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